Sicily's Demographic Winter

And the Mafia's decline

The population of Sicily is falling, as it is elsewhere, of course. Palermo Today reports:

“In view of the next school year, a cut of over 600 teachers is estimated in Sicily, of which 100 in the province of Palermo alone… The cut is caused by the drop in students, for the 2025/2026 school year in fact Sicily will lose … 8,496 students, going from 659,007 to 650,511.”

According to my calculations, the drop in school number is just under 1.3%, but I suppose that is quite a lot, if it means 600 teaching jobs going, which is infuriating the unions. The spread of cuts is pretty even over the whole island: 115 in Catania, 100 in Palermo, 85 in Messina, 75 in Trapani, 70 in Syracuse, 65 in Agrigento, 55 in Ragusa, 37ina Caltanissetta and 35 in Enna. Roughly every fifteen missing children result in a missing teacher. Goodness knows how this really adds up, but the teaching unions blame the government, lack of funding, and failure to prioritise the south of Italy, as well as the decline in population. Nevertheless, as a population declines, schools close. That is a fact. The Daily Telegraph recently highlighted the growth of what are termed ‘baby deserts’ in the UK - places without children, and therefore without need, for much longer, of schools. The general consensus is that populations decline slowly and then they decline rapidly. In the UK we are moving from phase one to phase two.

In Italy the rate of population growth has been declining for years, and recently it began to decline in absolute terms as well, in other words, more people died than were born in 2024. Statistics make my head ache, so I will hand you over to Reuters for a summary:

“Italy's demographic crisis deepened in 2024 as the number of births hit a new record low, emigration accelerated and the population continued to shrink, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Monday.

“Italy's ever-falling birth rate is considered a national emergency, but despite Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her predecessors pledging to make it a priority, none have so far been able to halt the drop.

“There were some 281,000 more deaths than births in 2024 and the population fell by 37,000 to 58.93 million, continuing a decade-long trend.

“Since 2014, Italy's population has shrunk by almost 1.9 million, more than the inhabitants of Milan, its second-largest city, or of the region of Calabria in the country's southern toe.

“The 370,000 babies born in 2024 marked the 16th consecutive annual decline and was the lowest figure since the country's unification in 1861.

“It was down 2.6% from 2023, ISTAT said, and 35.8% lower than in 2008 - the last year Italy saw an increase in the number of babies born.

“The fertility rate, measuring the average number of children born to each woman of child-bearing age, also fell to a record low of 1.18, far below the 2.1 needed for a steady population.

“The previous record low in the fertility rate was 1.19 children per woman recorded in 1995.

“The 651,000 deaths registered in 2024 were the lowest since 2019, bringing the number back into line with levels before the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Average life expectancy jumped to 83.4 years, up almost five months from 2023.

“The 191,000 Italians who moved abroad last year was officially the highest number this century, spiking more than 20% from the year before, though ISTAT said a regulatory change was probably a key factor in the data.

“A new law introduced last year imposed fines on Italians living abroad who failed to formally register as expatriates in their new country of residence.

“Foreigners made up 9.2% of the country's population in 2024, for a total of 5.4 million, up 3.2% year-on-year, with the majority living in the north of the country.

“Underscoring Italy's rapidly ageing population, ISTAT said almost one in four residents were above the age of 65, while the number of centenarians hit a new high of 23,500.”

What the article does not emphasises is that the decline of Italy’s native population is in numerical terms masked by the influx of immigrants. Almost one in ten is a foreigner in Italy, and more must be naturalised citizens. No one wants to hear this, but Italy is a dying country. It is actually noticeable - there are not that many young people or children about, and lots of oldies. Roughly 4.8 million people live in Sicily, and this scholastic year there will be 650,511 children of school age. That seems quite healthy. Roughly 69 million live in the UK, and our school population is 7, 779,000. By my not very very scientific calculations there is a greater number of schoolchildren in Sicily than in the UK per capita. So the UK may well be demographically poorer than Sicily. But can we trust these figures? Are some of the children in Sicily ‘ghost’ children providing employment for ‘ghost’ teachers? I have written about the rampant corruption in Italy’s schools before now.

What effect does a falling population have on crime, and organised crime in particular? Here, thanks to the merciful absence of statistics, one can but speculate. Most crime is committed by young men; the fewer young men, the less the crime, at least in theory. Moreover, as the native population shrinks, the Mafia has an ever smaller pool to fish from, and, as I have reported before now, old fashioned Mafiosi are constantly complaining that the younger generation are simply not worthy of their forebears. There is a dearth of talent. The hungry young men of yesteryear are simply no longer there is such numbers or feeling the same hunger. The Mafia looks back with fondness at the good old days, and at the present situation with worry. They are traditionalists and conservatives, and this makes their declinist outlook all the more enjoyably depressing.

Because nature abhors a vacuum, other people are moving into what was once undisputed Mafia territory. No one doubts that today the most successful criminal organisation in Europe is the 'Ndrangheta, which has spread its tentacles far and wide. But let us not forget the various gangs from the Balkans who have made a mark in many parts of Europe, and who may well have representatives in Sicily. I imagine they do, hence the characters in my books of don Traiano and don Costantino, the first from Romania, the second from Serbia. I would much rather write about the Balkans, where I have travelled, than Calabria, which I also know, but which is not full of good stories like the Balkans. That too is a tribute to the ‘Ndrangheta’s success. The most successful criminals are the ones you have never heard about.

What about the immigrants crossing every day into Italy by boat? How are they affecting the crime rate? Most of them are young, male and single. They do commit crimes, but not in an organised way. But that will come. Most come from war torn regions, and many will have been traumatised by violence, either as perpetrators or victims. The shape of Sicilian crime is changing.